On Barrons on Radian
There was a piece published in Barrons this weekend on Radian Group. Barrons is free this weekend so anyone can access it here. The article. written by Jonathan Laing follows quite closely the arguments written in this SeekingAlpha piece. Honestly, there is so much overlap between the two articles that I would have hoped that the writer of the Barrons piece contacted OliverDavies, who wrote the SeekingAlpha article, before writing his.
In my post, Does Radian Guaranty have a liquidity problem?, I considered most of the arguments made by Barrons and even came up with my own spreadsheet model to see if they were valid I have yet to hear of any major errors in my analysis, and it is an analysis I have went over a number of times since then in order to verify. Thus I remain of the opinion that my analysis is fair and that my conclusion that Radian Guaranty will not run into a liquidity problem absent the drop of another shoe in the housing market.
I have to wonder whether Johnathan Laing ran his own cash flow analysis before publishing his work. Did he create a model that showed Radian Guaranty would run out of cash? I would love to see that model. I am not academic about this argument; if someone can prove me wrong I will sell my stock and move on. I really couldn’t care less whether I am right or not, I only want to make money on the opportunity. Read more
Reminiscences of a Stockblogger 