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Buying when you don’t want to

The hardest posts for me to write are the one’s where I have to write that I bought a bunch of stocks on a day where the market was down a lot.  Its tough because I am worried I will be proven wrong.  Its extra tough because I am notoriously early and so I have been wrong many times before.

The market really tanked today and nothing tanked harder than the junior gold and oil stocks.  I had lightened up significantly on the gold stocks last week; I exited Canaco Resource, OceanaGold and a significant portion of Aurizon Mine. Unfortunately I used some of the proceeds to buy Pan Orient Energy, which took it on the chin today.

Nevertheless there is some truth to the old adage that the best time to buy stocks is often when you don’t want to.  Today I didn’t want to buy anything.  I even had half a mind to sell it all and stand away.

But having thought it through, I am having trouble making sense of the idea that this is the start of something big.  I have become a convert to the idea that the LTRO has taken out much of the systemic risk potential. The prices of periphery bonds suggest as much; even after today’s shellacking Italian and Spanish bonds sit near their lows.  The TED spread and Swap spread hardly moved at all and currently sits at 40 and 27 respectively, well of their highs of 60 and 55.  The bank stocks, while hit hard, did not lead the way down in the way they did in August.

It just doesn’t feel to me like it did in August, or in November for that matter, when the fear was palpable.  Yes, we are worried about Greece and what is going to happen.  But the evidence does not suggest that the big players are that worried.  If they were we would see more signals of the stress in the bond market.

Which makes sense.  By this point everyone knows about Greece.  Everyone who had money at risk with Greece should have been able to figure out how to take it off the table.  That yields aren’t rising in the periphery suggests that the real problem, that a Greece default would cause a domino effect, is not in the cards.

What I bought

I’ve had good luck buying Aurizon under $5 in the past and so I did so again today, restoring my full position in the stock.  I also bought more Golden Minerals.  Golden Minerals is a stock I had been tempted to sell when it got to $10, but I got a little greedy and decided against it, only to watch the stock fall back to $6.80 today, which is not too far away from my original purchase price.  The stock is reasonable at these levels; the company has $2 cash on hand per share and a 6Moz gold equivalent resource.

Interestingly, Rick Rule was on BNN yesterday and he had some positive comments on Golden Minerals in this clip (I’m not really sure how to embed video from BNN).

Since last Wednesday its been a swift fall for many gold stocks.  My bet here is that the latecomers have been fleshed out and that with stocks like Aurizon and Golden Minerals approaching their 52 week lows once again, we are close if not at the bottom.

I also added to Pan Orient.  This will be the last time that I add until I see the stock begin to rise again.  For the time being I will sit tight with what I own.

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