Posts from the ‘Timmins Gold (TMM)’ Category

Jun 24

Gold Stocks and My Lack of Conviction

The times when I am able to make a lot of money in the stock market have been those for which I have a strong conviction in the underlying conditions. When I believe that I have either a cyclical or secular wind at my back, my inclination is to stick to an investment and hold it to significant gains.

Compare this to when I invest because something looks cheap or seems undervalued. In such cases I don’t really have conviction in the mechanism of value realization, I am often found to be the one with weak hands, and I end up selling after experiencing more pain than I can handle.

This was the case last week with gold stocks. I sold most of my positions after gold collapsed to under $1300. The stocks I sold; Argonaut Gold, Timmins Gold, and Brigus Gold, had all been much higher only days earlier. In the case of Argonaut I ended up selling for a small profit, while both Timmins and Brigus were sold for a small loss. Read more

Apr 28

8 Comments

Week 95: Setting the table (hopefully)

Portfolio Performance

See the end of the post for a full portfolio breakdown.

Update

Since my last update I exited Radian Group, Arkansas Best and MBIA. The sales reflect a desire to redeploy cash in other opportunities as well as some lingering concerns about each company.

With Arkansas Best, its my uncertainty about the outcome of union negotiations. The negotiations were extended this week for a second time. An escalation to a strike does not seem out of the question. If a strike occurs the stock price may or may not get hit; while a positive resolution could be quite good for the stock in the long-run (see my original post about how Arkansas Best would benefit from a contract structured in a similar manner to the one that YRC Worldwide operates with) the uncertainty may drive panic selling. I’ve decided to wait this one out for a few weeks and see how it plays out. Read more