The Hidden Values of Ambac (AMBC)
I started a position in Ambac this week. While I still have more work to do on the company, I’ve done enough to think its worth a starter position. As usual, it will grow as the stock trends up and if events arise that validate the thesis behind my purchase. I first got the idea for the stock after having read Christian Herzeca’s blog post that points to the benefit Ambac has accrued from MBIA’s legal trailblazing.
Much like every other company with a ticker the stock ran away from me on Friday and is already a couple of bucks above where I bought it. Yet despite the move, I don’t think this is a scenario you have to rush into. The catalysts to stock appreciation are all going to take time to play out:
- A business plan that realizes the benefits of past net operating losses
- Reversals of their RMBS loss reserves
- Trial wins and/or settlements that add to shareholder value
About the only possible short-term catalyst I can imagine is if the company finds a merger partner that can take advantage of its NOLs. And given that the company is fresh out of bankruptcy, I doubt that is going to happen overnight. Read more
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