Posts tagged ‘investment opportunity’

Apr 19

Aercap – full value of ILFC acquisition is not in the stock

I got the idea for Aercap (AER) after listening to a Bloomberg Taking Stock podcast with Martin Sass. Sass recommended Aercap along with American Airlines (another company I am in the process of looking at) as he’s gone from hate to love on the airline industry. He called Aercap’s deal to acquire ILFC “transformative”, pointing out that it “will make Aercap Holdings the #1 aircraft leasing company in the world”, and yet that “it’s trading at only 8x earnings.”

On Thursday I tweeted a few reasons justifying my position in Aercap. You want to read these from the bottom up.

In this post I am going to follow up on that tweet with a more detailed description of my investment thesis. Read more

Apr 5

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Lojack (LOJN) – Speculating on a step-change from Fleet

I’ve been watching Lojack (LOJN) for a while, almost bought into it a couple of times but I’ve never been able to get comfortable until a few weeks ago.

The irony is that if I had waited a bit longer, I could have gotten in at about 15% less. Oh well. I always dislike writing up a stock that has already moved to the upside (I am in the process of doing just that with Air Canada right now). So here I get to do the opposite; tell you why I liked the stock at $6.20, and must really like it here at $5.40.

Why I bought Lojack in the $6’s

I decided to take a position after I reviewed the fourth quarter results. My reasons were:

The existing stolen vehicle recovery business appears to have reached an inflection where further increases in revenues should make a larger contribution to the bottom line
The outlook the company provided on Fleet was very positive
The stock price (around $6 at the time) priced in a modest improvement in the stolen vehicle recovery business but none of the upside of Fleet.