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Posts tagged ‘lojack’

Apr 5

9 Comments

Lojack (LOJN) – Speculating on a step-change from Fleet

I’ve been watching Lojack (LOJN) for a while, almost bought into it a couple of times but I’ve never been able to get comfortable until a few weeks ago.

The irony is that if I had waited a bit longer, I could have gotten in at about 15% less.  Oh well.  I always dislike writing up a stock that has already moved to the upside (I am in the process of doing just that with Air Canada right now).  So here I get to do the opposite; tell you why I liked the stock at $6.20, and must really like it here at $5.40.

Why I bought Lojack in the $6’s

I decided to take a position after I reviewed the fourth quarter results.  My reasons were:

  1. The existing stolen vehicle recovery business appears to have reached an inflection where further increases in revenues should make a larger contribution to the bottom line
  2. The outlook the company provided on Fleet was very positive
  3. The stock price (around $6 at the time) priced in a modest improvement in the stolen vehicle recovery business but none of the upside of Fleet.

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Mar 17

2 Comments

Week 141: Portfolio Allocation

Portfolio Performance

week-141-yoyperformance

See the end of the post for the current make up of my portfolio and the last four weeks of trades.

week-141-Performance

Recent Developments

I’ve been on vacation and so am a couple weeks late getting an update out.

My portfolio had a big move up, thanks mostly to the movement of Pacific Ethanol and MagicJack. Pacific Ethanol had a one day gain of 67% last Thursday, and is nearly a 4-bagger since I bought in. MagicJack is nearly a double.

But what has really helped is that even before the run-up Pacific Ethanol was my largest position. MagicJack was my fourth largest position.

One of the ironies of writing about the stocks I own, is that what I write about most is often not what I have the biggest position in.  The stocks I have the most to say about are the one’s that are on the cusp, where I am constantly debating whether to hold on to them or not.  My biggest positions; Pacific Ethanol, Yellow Media and MagicJack, for example, I have written only a single post about.  That post states the thesis, and as long as that thesis is valid I don’t have much else to say.

Yet the stocks in my portfolio are far from being of equal weighting.   I usually have a lot of stocks. Unless the market is going down, the stocks number at least 30 and has recently approached 40. But most of the positions are quite small, in the 1-2% range.  These as starter positions; enough to keep me interested and following the company, but not enough to hurt me too much. If my thesis for these companies plays out, or if, as I learn more I become more comfortable with the idea, I add.  If not, if the company materially lags or sometimes if time simply passes and I lose interest in the idea, I drop the position and move on. Read more