Reshuffling the Deck on the Jaguar Miss
The miss by Jaguar yesterday was disappointing. If you had wanted to look at the bright side you could have focused on the June production number and the performance of Turmalina and Paciencia. But I have learned enough to know that when a “dog” digs a deeper hole, the market will be more than willing to push him down it.
Therefore I really lightened up on Jaguar yesterday. I cut my positions in half in all accounts. One benefit of knowing a company well, and knowing just how good or bad the results are, is that you can sometimes act before the market fully prices in those results. Yesterday I sold a lot of Jaguar above $5 (Canadian) in the first few minutes before the market took the stock down into the $4.80s. Once you have decided to sell, I do not believe you should hold out hope for a better price. Just get out – and that’s what I did.
Here is what I sold and here is what I decided to jump into with some of the proceeds (note that as shown I did lighten up a little on Jaguar on a couple days before the release – call it a premonition but I wasn’t comfortable with the risk I had on the table given the track record of the company).
As the order list shows, I added to OceanaGold, Mercer International, and I started a position in Novus Energy. I wish that I had owned a little more of OceanaGold and a little less of Jaguar to begin with. There was a time when they had equal weightings but I liked the upside of a Jaguar turnaround story better. Unfortunately that story is still on hold, at least at Caete. Now, my positions in Jaguar, OceanaGold and Lydian are all comparable.
I will probably wait and see what Jaguar management has to say on the conference call in August before I make any more moves with the stock.
I plan to talk about both Mercer and Novus more in separate posts.