Stages of a Gold Move
The gold rally so far has been on pretty limited breadth. There have been some really great moves to new highs from the large and mid-tier producers. But small, single mine producers, deposit holders and explorers have participated to a smaller degree.
That isn’t to say that the smaller names haven’t done anything. They have had great moves – but in general the moves are not even to the highs they were at in early March, and often still some distance from where they were last summer.
I am reminded of what Rick Rule has always said about the gold miner bull markets. They always unfold the same way. First the large producers make their moves. Then the small producers. Then the developers and then the explorers.
I have seen this for myself on two occasions. It is what happened in the 2004-2006 market. And it is what happened in the 2009-2011 market. I can only assume that Rule has seen this in prior bull markets as well.
Now is this actually a bull market? I have no idea. All I know is that gold forever disappoints, and so it would not surprise me in the least if this is yet another pop only to drop.
In that case the small and micro-caps will not participate any more than we have seen, and given the move we have already had in the larger gold names, all of these stocks are probably close to their tops.
But if this is truly a gold bull market, then the move we have seen so far is just the first act. Next we will see the small producers move. And if that is the case, now is the time to be researching companies with deposits and companies with good exploration teams, because they will run in the near future.
So far earnings estimates are more optimistic than what earnings declines were in 2008 and 2009. And a quick snap back to normal in 2021 is priced in. On the one hand, this is not a debt fueled crisis, this is not the economy returning to a new normal from bubble levels. And the combo of direct stimulus and printing is unprecedented, and we are going into this with significantly lower household debt. On the other hand, the demand shock is also unprecedented. And there might be further virus scares later this year (not priced in currently). SPY is trading at <18x 2021 earnings if market is right though.
Just don't see how you can go from 20-25% unemployment back to 3.5% unemployment in less than a year. And I don't see how those earnings estimates are higher than 2019 if unemployment is 5-6% even. You would need large inflation (6-7%?), and Japan has shown, creating large inflation is not easy, they printed like crazy and inflation barely ticked up.
My guess is that market will see another leg down when late summer Q2 earnings reports come in. From some companies I follow, all those earnings estimates for this year still seem too rosy.