Research – NatGas
I have been in natgas stocks since shortly after the COVID bottom. I mentioned it here. They did well, pulled back (and I sold/chickened out briefly) and then took off again. I’m in a basket of names. Below is a comparison I did this week. Rafi Tahmazian made some good points, particularly about how overlooked the Montney is, in a BNN interview a couple weeks ago. Pretty much sums it up for me. Meanwhile some of these stocks seem cheap even after the run-up.
In addition to the usual suspects that I have already mentioned owning (PEY, AAV, PNE), I think Spartan Delta looks very reasonable, has good management, former BXE assets that I am familiar with and thus I like it a lot. Nuvista is also interesting to me as more of a levered flyer on the Montney and the option that we get a full-fledged price recovery like what Rafi speculates.
Very interesting! I wonder whether there won’t be a discount opportunity when some of these are forced to report a bath on their hedges. Definitely a good argument to be made for value for a lot of these. AAV’s current EV sits below their remaining interest in the Glacier plant, with a recent data point validating its worth.