Skip to content

Posts from the ‘Rio Alto Mining (RIO)’ Category

Week 168: Cutting my gains

Portfolio Performance

week-168-Performance

 

See the end of the post for the current make up of my portfolio and the last four weeks of trades.

Recent Developments

I don’t know if the chart of performance really does justice to the volatility my portfolio has had over the last couple of weeks.  It feels like much more of a roller coaster than that little blip in the trend that you see on the screen.

I sold out of the rest of Pacific Ethanol and Rex American Resources in the first half of this week.  I hemmed and hawed through the weekend, even briefly added to my position to Pacific Ethanol on Monday (at the same time I was reducing my position in Rex American), but the volatility of the stocks, the declining price of ethanol, and specific to Pacific Ethanol, my uncertainty with respect to their corn basis (I concluded tentatively it is actually quite a bit higher than Q2) led me to capitulate on many of my shares on Tuesday.  I followed that up by selling the rest on Wednesday in the minutes that followed a very bearish EIA inventory report (+800,000bbl!). I tweeted on my sales at the time.

My caution turned out to be fortuitous as the stocks continued to fall the rest of the week.  I was even able to catch a few dollars of profit on the way down; always remembering the old classic to which this blog takes its namesake, I took the lesson that if a stock is to be sold it is likely just as well sold short, and so I took a small short position in Rex American and a few $18 puts on Pacific Ethanol.  The puts were sold Friday and my short position has been cut more than in half, so these were merely short term trades taking advantage of a clearly bearish dynamic. Read more

Week 155: Still Cautious

 Portfolio Performance

week-155-yoyperformance

week-155-Performance

See the end of the post for the current make up of my portfolio and the last four weeks of trades.

Recent Developments

In my last update I stated that I had about a 20% cash position and wanted to increase that position heading into the summer.  We are now one month further along and my cash position stands at something less than 5%.

Nevertheless I do remain somewhat uneasy about what happens to the market post QE.   As I wrote about in my last update:

Twice the quantitative easing policies of the Federal Reserve have ended and twice the market has gone into a tailspin.

I came across what I thought was a very good interview of Richard Duncan on the website Valuewalk.  I read his first book, The Dollar Crisis, a number of years ago and I still pull the book out every year or so to go through the concepts another time.  I have followed Duncan ever since.  The video rather long, but in my opinion Duncan describes what current drives the market right now and summarizes why I am uneasy.

 

I view a number of the stocks I own right now as shorter term trades with (hopefully) immediate catalysts.  I have been reducing positions that I would consider likely to have a lower bottom in an event of a correction.  And I have been buying gold stocks.  So even though I have added a few positions and reduced my overall cash position, I feel like I am continuing to reduce risk.   I tweeted the following about my purchases of gold shares: Read more