Short Lived Niko Experience
I wrote about a new position in Niko in a short summary 3 weeks ago. A couple weeks later I sold the stock. What can I say – its part of my process. A lot of times I only get clarity about a stock once I own it. I buy a position, sit on it for a few days or a week, and do some more background and some more thinking on the name. With that my opinion becomes more clear.
The discomfort I developed with Niko was partially the result of another batch of less than stellar drilling results, but mostly the result of my conclusion that this isn’t the right time yet. The driver of the share price will be the settlement of a new gas price contract in India. I don’t think this is likely to occur until the existing contract expires, which is not until next year. In the mean time Niko will continue to experience production declines in India, and they are open to negative news flow on drilling. Read more
Update: New Positions and My Method
I added starter positions in a few new names in the last three weeks. A couple of these (RPX Corp and Mitek) I have already written about. The other four positions that I started were in YRC Worldwide, AIG, Alon Energy Partner and Nexen.
Apart from Nexen, which was a special situation, the other stock positions are small, and were initiated because I thought the stocks warranted further review. This is my process. I like to add stocks that look promising, which incentivizes me to look at them closer. This technique might not be for everyone, but it works for me.
It’s difficult to explain why the process works for me. When I have some money on the line I tend to churn the idea in the back of my mind, and over time my opinion on the position becomes clarified. I begin to like it more or not at all. If I don’t take a position, I tend to forget about the stock altogether, and my analysis ends without any real conclusion.
Of course in the mean time I do have money on the line, so there is the chance for real gains or losses. But usually these aren’t significant, and anyways, I only do this with names that I have done some initial digging on and have deemed have som promise. I may lose a few dollar or make a few dollars on these positions over time, but any losses I would chalk up to the cost of doing business.
I have since taken a closer look at three of the six. Read more