It’s a huge structural advantage not to have a lot of money. I think I could make you 50% a year on $1 million. No, I know I could. I guarantee that – Warren Buffett
I’m adding a simple year by year and quarterly performance table to the start of every portfolio update. I’ve had the on-line portfolio going for over 2 years now, and I find that the chart is less informative the longer the time horizon gets. The quote, which I have mentioned before, is more of a goal than a statement. Buffett says it’s possible, let’s try to prove him right.
I’ve already written about most of the new stocks that I added in the last month (Ainsworth Lumber, Tronox, Novus Energy,smaller positions in Lightstream Resources and Penn West, and lastly Niko Resources. In this post I will focus on some of the stocks I sold (including most of my large position in YRC Worldwide), and add some thoughts on oil and Canadian oil juniors.
I’m getting this update out a day late so all of the numbers are are of Friday July 19th.
The last four weeks of trades are available here.
You just never know the path that will lead to an investment idea.
From time to time I get asked what sort of screens I use to come up with ideas. And the truth is, I don’t use much. Sometimes I go to one of those technical analysis sites that lists names that have broken through key technical barriers and I use that as a starting point. So that is something of a method I guess, except that I don’t really pay any attention to the technicals themselves, I use the information as a somewhat randomized starting point, and I am almost as likely to look at a long idea from the ‘break the 52 week low’ bucket as I am from the ‘break the 52 week high’ bucket.
Just as often I use no method at all. I follow a totally inefficient, fairly random path whereby I start with a name that comes up in an article, in a tweet, or that is mentioned on a site, and from there I look at that name and in the process I am usually lead to a few other names, or if I like the theme but not the specific company in question I give some thought and time to search out other names that might be equally leveraged to the idea but more suited to my tastes. I end up bouncing around from company to company and sometimes I find something and more often I don’t. Read more
Earnings season should be upon us shortly for the Oil and Gas junior companies. To prepare for the onslaught of earnings reports over the next month, I have updated and published below my junior comparison spreadsheet. I’ve added a few new companies to the list of those I follow, with those being Pinecrest and Galleon (now Guide Exploration).
A few things jumped out at me after having reviewe the spreadsheet:
- We’ve had a big move in Equal Energy from $4 to $6, but even with that move the stock is trading very cheaply on pretty much any metric
- Skywest really looks cheap compared to its peers. I used to own Skywest, but I sold it when it looked like they were headed for a cash crunch. I think it is worth looking at again at these levels.
- Arcan trades at a premium to its peers. Just something I like to point out to be aware of. I believe that it should trade at a premium, but its worth remembering because it suggests that any production hiccup will be severely punished
- Reliable Energy is starting to look interesting again. They had some interesting drill results in their last update and are reaching that critical production level (1,000bbl/d) where they will begin to generate the cash flow needed to ramp their production up on a consistent basis