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Posts from the ‘PennyMac Mortgage (PMT)’ Category

Week 107: Back to Commodities

It’s a huge structural advantage not to have a lot of money. I think I could make you 50% a year on $1 million. No, I know I could. I guarantee that – Warren Buffett

yoyperformance

I’m adding a simple year by year and quarterly performance table to the start of every portfolio update.  I’ve had the on-line portfolio going for over 2 years now, and I find that the chart is less informative the longer the time horizon gets. The quote, which I have mentioned before, is more of a goal than a statement.  Buffett says it’s possible, let’s try to prove him right.

I’ve already written about most of the new stocks that I added in the last month (Ainsworth Lumber, Tronox, Novus Energy,smaller positions in Lightstream Resources and Penn West, and lastly Niko Resources. In this post I will focus on some of the stocks I sold (including most of my large position in YRC Worldwide), and add some thoughts on oil and Canadian oil juniors.

I’m getting this update out a day late so all of the numbers are are of Friday July 19th.

Portfolio Performance

week-107-Performance

Portfolio Composition

week-107The last four weeks of trades are available here.

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Taking Advantage of the REIT Sell-off

For some time now I have wanted to take advantage of companies that will benefit from improving credit conditions. Yet since the beginning of the year the steep run-up in these stocks has led me to limit my purchases to a small position in Arbor Realty (ABR) and a short lived position in RAIT Financial (RAS).

Thus I am pleased that we are finally seeing a significant correction in these names.  The correction is being brought about by the rise in interest rates, a pullback in the credit markets (here and here), my interpretation of which is that it has been driven by a temporary oversupply and of course fears of the Fed, and investors inability to distinguish between more unconventional REIT structures that are not sensitive to increases in interest rates and simple agency and non-agency mortgage REITs that are. The companies that I am interested in are mostly agnostic to interest rate increases and in some cases will actually benefit from a rise in rates, but that hasn’t stopped them from selling off.

In the last three weeks I have taken advantage of the sell-off by buying shares in the following names:

  1. New Residential (NRZ)
  2. PennyMac Mortgage (PMT)
  3. Northstar Realty (NRF) Read more