Posts from the ‘Timmins Gold (TMM)’ Category

Apr 23

Week 146: Some thoughts on agility

Portfolio Performance

See the end of the post for the current make up of my portfolio and the last four weeks of trades.

Recent Developments

Four weeks ago I wrote:

I think an important pillar of my strategy to take advantage of the concentration that I can have. I don’t have anyone pressuring me to be diversified or questioning my risk level or anyone to answer to if something goes wrong. So I don’t hesitate to have a large percentage of my portfolio tied to the names I think will perform the best.

With that said, the names that I am currently of the heaviest weight are, of course, Pacific Ethanol, which remains my largest position by far

Today Pacific Ethanol represents a 2% position for me. Read more

Jan 5

Week 131: Flat on my Back

Portfolio Performance

See the end of the post for the current make up of my portfolio and the last four weeks of trades.

Recent Developments

Its been a very quiet month and you can count the number of trades that I made on both hands. I was away for some time, there were holidays, and I was laid up with back problems for over a week.

Being laid up and not able to do much of anything reminded me of the importance of giving myself time to think. There are so many ideas to chase down, so many angles to look at, its easy to spend all one’s time doing and no time thinking about what else you might be doing.

It was that thinking that brought me to the idea about Pacific Ethanol, which I wrote about here. Pacific Ethanol was a story that I had been reading posts on the Investorshub message boards for a while, but because I hadn’t really stopped to think about the idea, it remained just a stock that I didn’t understand that kept going up. Read more

Dec 1

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Timmins Gold: Anatomy of a Gold Stock Valuation

I’ve talked before about my “rule” to average down when a stock gets underwater by 20%. This 20% threshold is not so much a firm line in the sand as it is an alarm bell to remind me to review my position and clarify exactly what it is I am doing. While in most cases at the end of it all I do decide to reduce my position or exit it entirely, there are also cases where my review leads me to become more confident in my position, and where I do not reduce but instead even add to it.

The 20% threshold was recently broken with Timmins Gold. The stock dropped past $1.10 (it has since recovered to $1.20 and, to give away the ending, I did buy more at $1.10 so I am now down about 10%). I bought both Timmins and Argonaut Gold back in October (I wrote about the positions here) as a way to trade my expectation of higher gold prices in the near term. Obviously that thesis did not play out the way I had hoped, at least not yet.

As I wrote at the time, my research into both names was not exhaustive and I ended up taking the analysis of a few brokerage shops with more faith than I usually might. Well that was my first mistake. It turned out that the original brokerage analysis was quite flawed and two of the firms have since downgraded their estimates and the stock significantly, after the release of an updated mine plan for the San Francisco mine. In the case of BMO, the downgrade was from $2.75 to $1.50! Read more

Oct 26

A couple of Gold Stock Positions (AR.to, TMM.to)

I’ve made a number of moves in my portfolio over the last couple of weeks and in a few cases the stocks I’ve bought have already started to move so I thought I’d dedicate a few short posts this weekend to talking about the changes before things get any further.

A couple of Gold Stock Positions

I haven’t been in any gold stocks since the spring. When I sold out of my positions, I gave the following state of the union.

But the path gold takes to get there could be rocky. In particular, its clear that the market believes that quantitative easing has worked. And indeed, the US economy is getting better. Whether the economy, and the financial markets, can continue to improve without massive injections of money is an open question. But until that question is answered, which could be 6-12 months away, the working assumption appears to be that it will, and that is going to be bad for gold.

A number of reasons led me to foray back into gold stocks last week. First of all, the debt ceiling appeared to be and finally did get settled on what seems to be a pretty temporary basis. Second, Janet Yellen was announced as the Fed Chairman beginning next year. Third, the latest economic data for the US economy is looking pretty milk-toasty, and fourth, the gold stocks I look at were at or lower than the levels in June and thus were reflecting none of this. I tweeted the following on October 15th.