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Posts from the ‘Palliser Oil and Gas (PXL)’ Category

Week 168: Cutting my gains

Portfolio Performance

week-168-Performance

 

See the end of the post for the current make up of my portfolio and the last four weeks of trades.

Recent Developments

I don’t know if the chart of performance really does justice to the volatility my portfolio has had over the last couple of weeks.  It feels like much more of a roller coaster than that little blip in the trend that you see on the screen.

I sold out of the rest of Pacific Ethanol and Rex American Resources in the first half of this week.  I hemmed and hawed through the weekend, even briefly added to my position to Pacific Ethanol on Monday (at the same time I was reducing my position in Rex American), but the volatility of the stocks, the declining price of ethanol, and specific to Pacific Ethanol, my uncertainty with respect to their corn basis (I concluded tentatively it is actually quite a bit higher than Q2) led me to capitulate on many of my shares on Tuesday.  I followed that up by selling the rest on Wednesday in the minutes that followed a very bearish EIA inventory report (+800,000bbl!). I tweeted on my sales at the time.

My caution turned out to be fortuitous as the stocks continued to fall the rest of the week.  I was even able to catch a few dollars of profit on the way down; always remembering the old classic to which this blog takes its namesake, I took the lesson that if a stock is to be sold it is likely just as well sold short, and so I took a small short position in Rex American and a few $18 puts on Pacific Ethanol.  The puts were sold Friday and my short position has been cut more than in half, so these were merely short term trades taking advantage of a clearly bearish dynamic. Read more

Week 131: Flat on my Back

Portfolio Performance

yoyperformance

See the end of the post for the current make up of my portfolio and the last four weeks of trades.

week-131-Performance

Recent Developments

Its been a very quiet month and you can count the number of trades that I made on both hands.  I was away for some time, there were holidays, and I was laid up with back problems for over a week.

Being laid up and not able to do much of anything reminded me of the importance of giving myself time to think.  There are so many ideas to chase down, so many angles to look at, its easy to spend all one’s time doing and no time thinking about what else you might be doing.

It was that thinking that brought me to the idea about Pacific Ethanol, which I wrote about here.  Pacific Ethanol was a story that I had been reading posts on the Investorshub message boards for a while, but because I hadn’t really stopped to think about the idea, it remained just a stock that I didn’t understand that kept going up. Read more

Week 127: A couple of new stocks and getting rid of a few others (JONE, MHR, PXL.CA, DGIT, TROX)

Portfolio Performance

week-127-yoyperformance

See the end of the post for the current make up of my portfolio and the last four weeks of trades.

week-127-Performance

Recent Developments

I don’t have a lot to say about the macro picture or generalized musings about my portfolio this month. The macro continues to be a party-on atmosphere so I guess we’ll keep dancing. My portfolio is still not performing as well as I would like but I don’t have any insights into why that is or what I should do different. I had a very good first seven months of the year, and now I am having a lull. These things ebb and flow. Onto the stocks.

Adding Jones Energy (JONE)

I really like this stock. It’s a recent IPO (it went public at the beginning of August), I don’t think it’s well covered or known by many, but it looks to me like they have been drilling extremely profitable gas-condensate wells in the mid-continent, and they have plenty of undeveloped acreage to drill more. I took a big position in it right off the bat at 6%. Read more

Some Cheap Canadian Stocks (Part II)

As the second part of my post about Canadian stocks I have been adding to recently I want to discuss 3 oil related businesses, Entrec Corporation (ENT.v), Palliser Oil and Gas (PXL.v) and Tesla Exploration (TXL.to)

Entrec Corp (ENT.v)

Another company of which I took a position in the last week is Entrec. Entrec provides oversized hauling, crane services and rigging services in Northern Alberta and the British Columbia. The company was a part of Flint Services until April 2011 when they sold the business to EIS Capital. At the same time EIS acquired a whole bunch of oilfield and transportation services companies (see the 2011 news releases for the past list) amalgamated the companies with Entrec and renamed the consolidated entity to Entrec.

Entrec has been on an acquisition spree since that time. It looks like they’ve acquired 10 different companies, most of which are small, trucking and hauling entities. According to Canaccord (a report which I googled and is available here ) Entrec’s acquisitions between July 2011 and the end of December have averaged 3.44x EBITDA. The latest, GT Crane and Transportation Services, was acquired for 3.5x EBITDA. Read more

Waiting for Novus and adding more Canadian Oil Juniors to the Portfolio (Pinecrest, Palliser)

I have been adding more Canadian oil junior positions.

If you recall, I started my endeavor into the domestic oils a month and a half ago, when I purchased Lightstream Energy and Penn West.  That didn’t last long; I quickly jettisoned those names after doing more research, deciding that neither was particularly cheap, and recognizing that there were other, smaller names that were more attractive.

The first names I went with was Novus Energy and that was followed by Longview Exploration, and Rock Energy.  Of the three I felt the most comfortable with Novus and made that position the largest.  This week, an article came out in a Hong Kong paper (I believe if was the Economic Times) that Novus was about to be taken out by a Chinese company called Yanchang Petroleum (you can access the translated article here, and one version of the original here).  The news was clearly leaked, Novus wasn’t ready for it to be released, and the stock has remained halted for the last 3 days.

If the article is to be believed, the value of the transaction is going to be a windfall for shareholders.  According to the article the purchase price is $500 million, which after subtracting debt and accounting for stock options would still mean over $2 per share.  Given that Novus is an 8% position for me, this would be a huge gain. Read more