See the end of the post for the current make up of my portfolio and the last four weeks of trades
I don’t have any general comments to make so I am going to get right into my portfolio updates for the last month.
The Tanker trade
The biggest moves in my portfolio have tended to take place in the first couple months of the year . In 2013 it was YRC Worldwide. In 2014 it was Pacific Ethanol. I’m hoping that this year its the tanker stocks.
Of course the tanker stocks have already had significant moves. I have been adding positions at prices that are much higher than they were a couple of months ago. But to use Pacific Ethanol as an analogy, the move from $2 to $4 was only the first act. I’m not sure if these stocks will put on the show that Pacific Ethanol did, but I am hopeful there is a second act in the cards. Read more
See the end of the post for the current make up of my portfolio and the last twelve weeks of trades (its been a while since I did a full update).
The last few weeks have been a rollercoaster. It was less than a week ago, on Tuesday night, that I was deliberating whether I should be making dramatic cuts to my exposure the next morning. By the market close Friday my portfolio was back to the post October peak.
The gyrations have not been due to particular volatility in the stocks I own. Over the last month I have basically been tracking the market, doing a little bit better but not much. Its just that the market is going up and down like a yo-yo.
While I am happy to have gained back the losses I took over the past couple of weeks, this whole dynamic makes me uneasy. Too many extremes for my liking. In my investment account, which is where most of my risk is and the one I track here (its also by far the most fun one to write about) I’ve taken down some exposure over the last few days by reducing some positions that seem to be the most prone to gyrations in this market. Stocks like Ocwen, Nationstar, Aercap and the like (note that I wrote this over the weekend and had reduced my servicing positions before the Ocwen settlement today. Today I sold Ocwen entirely at the open, being a little surprised that it was trading at $19+, bought back some Nationstar at a little over $28 later in the day and then bought back a bit of a position in Ocwen at the end of the day on hope of a short term bounce). Read more
See the end of the post for the current make up of my portfolio and the last four weeks of trades.
In a previous post about Walker & Dunlop I described the consequence of being on vacation while the company announced poor results, which was that I was not able to take advantage of a clear selling situation. The same was the case for Dex Media.
In the past I used the term “good enough investing” to describe what I’m trying to do with my portfolio. I work a full time job, have a life and need a break now and then, and all that means I just can’t be on top of everything. I try my best but I have found it necessary to employ techniques to mitigate this. In particular, I sell stocks when things aren’t working out.
While I’ve had my share of winners over the past month and a half (AIQ, NVS, NCT, NRF, IQNT to name a few), I’ve also had my share of losers (NKO, EXE, VTNC, and the above mentioned duo) with the result being that my portfolio has done not much of anything. While I remain hopeful that both Niko Resources and Extendicare eventually pan out, the fact is that thus far they haven’t. Read more
It’s a huge structural advantage not to have a lot of money. I think I could make you 50% a year on $1 million. No, I know I could. I guarantee that – Warren Buffett
I’m adding a simple year by year and quarterly performance table to the start of every portfolio update. I’ve had the on-line portfolio going for over 2 years now, and I find that the chart is less informative the longer the time horizon gets. The quote, which I have mentioned before, is more of a goal than a statement. Buffett says it’s possible, let’s try to prove him right.
I’ve already written about most of the new stocks that I added in the last month (Ainsworth Lumber, Tronox, Novus Energy,smaller positions in Lightstream Resources and Penn West, and lastly Niko Resources. In this post I will focus on some of the stocks I sold (including most of my large position in YRC Worldwide), and add some thoughts on oil and Canadian oil juniors.
I’m getting this update out a day late so all of the numbers are are of Friday July 19th.
The last four weeks of trades are available here.
You just never know the path that will lead to an investment idea.
From time to time I get asked what sort of screens I use to come up with ideas. And the truth is, I don’t use much. Sometimes I go to one of those technical analysis sites that lists names that have broken through key technical barriers and I use that as a starting point. So that is something of a method I guess, except that I don’t really pay any attention to the technicals themselves, I use the information as a somewhat randomized starting point, and I am almost as likely to look at a long idea from the ‘break the 52 week low’ bucket as I am from the ‘break the 52 week high’ bucket.
Just as often I use no method at all. I follow a totally inefficient, fairly random path whereby I start with a name that comes up in an article, in a tweet, or that is mentioned on a site, and from there I look at that name and in the process I am usually lead to a few other names, or if I like the theme but not the specific company in question I give some thought and time to search out other names that might be equally leveraged to the idea but more suited to my tastes. I end up bouncing around from company to company and sometimes I find something and more often I don’t. Read more